After withdrawing its troops from the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, Russia is launching a new offensive in the eastern Donetsk region, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
In its Nov. 13 assessment, the US think tank said that while Ukraine had won an important victory, it was not time for international partners to stop sending aid and start pushing for new peace talks, which are expected to be overwhelmingly in Moscow’s favor.
The ISW went on to say that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) are likely to consolidate their control over the west bank of the Dnieper River, massing troops to deter Russia from making another attempt to cross the river.
The UAF is also expected to redeploy forces to other areas for defensive and counter-offensive operations.
One of the key areas where the next battles will be concentrated is the east of Ukraine, in the Donetsk region.
According to ISW, Russian offensive operations in the Donetsk region will intensify in the coming weeks as additional mobilized troops arrive alongside forces withdrawn from western Kherson.
Ukrainian forces in the area will come under heavy pressure, and Kyiv will likely have to redeploy troops to defend against renewed Russian offensives.
In the neighboring Luhansk region, Ukrainian forces continued to make limited gains.
According to ISW, if troops from western Kherson are moved there, Ukraine could advance even further despite Russia also strengthening its defense positions in the region.
As the weather changes and the mud that has complicated operations freezes, fighting is likely to intensify as conditions become more favorable for “large-scale mechanized maneuver warfare,” according to ISW.
Looking ahead, ISW states that the Ukrainians will almost certainly continue their counteroffensive operations already underway.
Watch the Euronews report in the player above.