Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s longtime incumbent leader, appeared headed for a presidential runoff for the first time in his career after falling short of the 50 percent needed to win in national elections on Sunday.



Source: Anadolu Agency (unofficial results).

Mersin Diyarbakır Antalya Kayseri Gaziantep Izmir Bursa Samsung Konya Adana Ankara Istanbul

The provinces containing Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey’s two largest cities, voted for Kemal Kilicdaroglu after both voted for Erdogan in 2018.

The country’s prosperous coastal region voted for the opposition, just like before.

Turkey’s Kurdish population, who live mostly in the southeast, voted overwhelmingly in support of the opposition.

Central Turkey, a stronghold of Erdogan, voted mostly in the president’s favor.

Sources: Anadolu Agency (unofficial election results), WorldPop (population density).

Note: Not all results have been reported. Some results are subject to change.

Erdogan still had the most votes of all the candidates, including the opposition leader Kemal Kilicdarogluas of Monday, infuriating opposition supporters who expected a quick victory.

Mr Erdogan appeared to have a head start heading into a likely run-off on May 28. Right-wing supporters of a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, are more likely to vote for Erdogan in the runoff, analysts say, boosting his candidacy. winning chances.

Even so, almost all parts of the country went against Erdogan compared to the last presidential election in 2018, according to preliminary results from Anadolu Agency, a state news organization.

2023 Erdogan vote share compared to 2018

Lower Erdogan vote share

Higher Erdogan vote share

Mersin Diyarbakır Antalya Kayseri Gaziantep Izmir Bursa Samsung Konya Adana Ankara Istanbul

In the areas hardest hit by the February earthquake, most provinces moved away from Erdogan.

Mr Erdogan was ahead in most provinces in central Turkey, his traditional stronghold, but he lost many votes there compared to 2018.

Sources: Anadolu Agency (unofficial election results), US Geological Survey (earthquakes).

Some of the sharpest rebuke came from the provinces around Turkey’s two biggest cities, Istanbul and Ankara, where Erdogan won in 2018 but was trailing on Monday, and from areas of central Turkey that have traditionally provided Erdogan’s core support. Mr Erdogan was still well ahead in most provinces there, but he lost votes compared to 2018.

Voters also leaned away from Erdogan in the regions hardest hit by the earthquake. Voters there told The Times they voted for Mr. Kilicdaroglu because of the government’s earthquake response as well as its handling of the economy.

The shifts were more muted in areas where opposition politicians have generally fared well, along the Mediterranean coast in the west and in Turkey’s southeast, where most of the Kurdish population lives.

The result of the presidential election by year

Candidates need 50 percent of the vote to avoid a re-election

2014 Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Erdogan Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu

Ihsanoglu Selahattin Demirtas

Demirtas 2018 Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Erdogan Muharrem Ince

Ince Selahattin Demirtas

Demirtas Meral Aksener

Axes 2023 Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Erdogan Kemal Kilicdaroglu

Kilicdaroglu Sinan Ogan


Sources: Supreme Electoral Council, Anadolu Agency (unofficial election results).

Note: The results from 2023 are preliminary. The graphic includes all candidates who received at least 5 percent of the vote.

The vote was in many ways one referendum on the performance by mr. Erdogan, Turkey’s dominant politician for 20 years.