China’s activity since reopening not yet reflecting oil prices, analysts say

We are not emerging with a bullish view of oil, say analysts

Demand from China’s reopening is not yet fully reflected in oil prices, said Paul Sankey, president and principal analyst at Sankey Research.

“The China data looks really buoyant from a mobility and activity standpoint, but it’s not really reflected in oil prices,” he said, adding that oil prices are not performing as well as they expected them to right now.

Brent Crude oil futures rose 0.10% to $83.24 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate Futures rose 0.17% to $76.45 a barrel.

Sankey further said that OPEC member Saudi Arabia would like to see oil prices $10 above where they are currently.

“I think Saudi Arabia will manage the market into the summer and get us towards $100 a barrel,” he said.

– Lee Ying Shan

The People’s Bank of China maintains a moderately dovish tone in the report

The People’s Bank of China maintained a moderately dovish tone in its quarterly reportwhich reiterated its current position was considered appropriate to support economic growth and stability.

The central bank reiterated its support for a cross-cyclical adjustment to boost demand and provide stronger support to the economy.

It also reiterated its pledge to maintain adequate liquidity and credit growth while keeping money supply and social financing growth in line with nominal gross domestic product.

The PBOC added that reductions in the reserve requirement ratio last year were one of the tools the central bank used to support lending, without elaborating further.

— Jihye Lee

CNBC Pro: Investor says tech hasn’t bottomed yet — and reveals the FAANG stocks to avoid

Bear market rally or a new bull market? Market professionals are uncertain about this year’s tech bounce, but investor Mark Hawtin believes the worst may be yet to come.

And while FAANG stocks are popular with many investors, Hawtin believes some are riskier than others.

Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Zavier Ong

Stocks continue to fall after the U.S. reportedly mulls limits on South Korean chipmakers

Shares in South Korean chipmakers continued to fall on Monday.

Big chipmakers like Samsung and SK Hynix saw its shares fall 1.63% and 1.54%, respectively, while LG Electronics saw a smaller drop of 1.32%. The Kospi led losses in Asia overall, trading 1.46% lower.

This comes after Reuters reported on Friday that the US is likely to impose a cap on the level of chips made by South Korean companies in China.

Reuters quoted U.S. Commerce Department Undersecretary for Industry and Security Alan Estevez as saying that “What will likely be a cap on the levels that they can grow to in China,” when asked what would happen after a waiver from the US government- imposed rules on chipmakers in China expires.

Shares of other major chipmakers also suffered losses on Monday, with Taiwanese chip makers Hon Hai Precision Industry (also known as Foxconn) down 1.94% and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing lower to 1.35%.

— Lim Hui Jie, Jihye Lee

CNBC Pro: ‘The market has gone too far:’ Chief global strategist predicts when Fed will cut rates

Despite efforts by the US Federal Reserve to tighten financial conditions, “the market has gone too far,” according to Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors.

The strategist told CNBC how the Federal Reserve might react and when it will cut interest rates, which could boost stock markets.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

Chief strategist at Principal Global Investors predicts when the Fed will cut interest rates

Fed’s Master Says Interest Rates Must Go Above 5% To Curb Inflation

Interest rates need to go even higher for inflation to come down, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Friday.

“I see that we will have to raise interest rates above 5%,” she told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a “Squawk Box” interview. “We will find out how much over. It will depend on how the economy develops over time. But I think we need to be slightly above 5% and hold for some time to get inflation on a sustainable downward path to 2% .”

Mester recently made news when she revealed she was among a small group of Fed officials who on Jan. 31-Feb. 1 Federal Open Market Committee, wanted a rate hike of half a percentage point rather than the quarter-point move the panel approved.

-Jeff Cox

China Renaissance says Bao Fan is cooperating with a government investigation

Missing Chinese investment bank Bao Fan is cooperate with a government investigation, his company China’s Renaissance said in a filing Sunday.

“The board has become aware that Mr. Bao is currently cooperating with an investigation being conducted by certain authorities in the People’s Republic of China,” the company said, noting that its business operations remain normal.

China Renaissance’s Hong Kong-listed shares have fallen 29% since the company said the February 16 was unable to reach Bao. He is, among other things, the company’s controlling shareholder, managing director and founder.

— Evelyn Cheng

Asia week ahead: Growth, inflation and purchasing managers’ index readings

Regional readings for the Purchasing Managers’ Index, Japan’s industrial production and Australia’s gross domestic product will be some of the big economic events taking place this week.

New Zealand will report its fourth quarter retail sales on Monday while Taiwan will celebrate Peace Memorial Day until Tuesday.

On Tuesday, Japan is scheduled to release its industrial production and retail sales while Australia will announce its current account for the fourth quarter.

India will also report its gross domestic product for its fourth quarter on Tuesday. During the night, US consumer confidence for February will also be released.

South Korea’s market will be closed on March 1 to celebrate Independence Movement Day.

On Wednesday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics will release its government reading of the Purchasing Managers’ Index after it showed a return to growth of 50.1 in January.

Australia will release its inflation reading and gross domestic product for the fourth quarter. Economists polled by Reuters expect growth of a seasonally adjusted 2.8% year-on-year.

Indonesia will also announce its consumer price index in February, which is expected to rise to 5.42% from a previous reading of 5.28%, according to a Reuters poll.

On Thursday, fourth-quarter trade data from New Zealand will be released, as well as South Korea’s industrial production and retail sales. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for South Korea is also scheduled for release.

On Friday, Japan’s unemployment rate for January is expected to come in at 2.5% for January, according to a Reuters poll. Tokyo’s consumer price index for all goods except fresh food is expected to have risen 3.3% for January.

— Jihye Lee

Investors need to “control what they can control,” says Baird

The market is currently feeling the effects of “too much good news at once,” according to Baird analyst Ross Mayfield. With inflation still high and the Federal Reserve expected to continue hikes, Mayfield advises investors to “control what (they) can control.”

“First, automate things: dollar cost averaging (investing over regularly scheduled intervals) is a great way to find outperformance in volatile/sideways markets,” Mayfield wrote in a Friday note.

“Second, review your allocation to ensure you are well diversified and on plan.”

—Hakyung Kim

Stocks end worst week of the year

U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday, ending their worst week in 2023.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 336 points, or 1.0%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 1.0% and 1.7% respectively. The Dow fell as much as 510 points, or 1.54%, earlier in the trading session.

—Hakyung Kim